NASARAWA STATE ACCORDING TO MY APPRAISAL: part 8

KASIMU ALI SPEAKS
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================Feb 5, 2019=

The Politics of Nasarawa North:
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The Politics of Akwanga zone (Nasarawa North) has always been domesticated, streamlined and shaped in consonance with its anscestral divides. These divides are Nasarawa Eggon LGA, Akwanga LGA and Wamba LGA. The elective politics of "Turn-by-Turn" has always guided the zone. But, the forthcoming 2019 General Elections are likely to go against this spirit, and, this may reshape to produce a new template for the zone. This may erode the political brotherliness in Akwanga zone particularly as regards Senate and House of Representative.
   As it stands at the moment, and unless a new strategy is done, Chief Michael Abdul PDP, will win the Senatorial Election and Engr Audu Sule APC, will become the new State Governor. Both of them are from Akwanga LGA. House of Reps calculations have already slipped past the stars of Mr Musa Umaru ADC, and now in the forehead of Hon Abdulkarim Ombamas PDP. The two of them hail from Wamba LGA.
   Nasarawa Eggon LGA has 4 (four) Governorship Candidates and ALL the 4 are likely to lose the election. Two of them are Hon Labaran Maku APGA and Hon David Ombugadu PDP. There are 5 (five) Senatorial candidates for Senate in Nasarawa Eggon LGA. They are Hon Sam Alu APGA, Sen Patricia Akwashiki ADC, Hon Godiya Akwashiki APC, Mr Inusa Mohammed Umbugu-Anga SDP and Ms Rhoda Kutsa. While Inusa is from Mada Station electoral ward, the other 4 are from the same ward, Kagbu Ward.

  NATIONAL ASSEMBLY SEATS 1999 - 2019:
Senate 1999-2003 went to Nasarawa Eggon while House of Reps got to Wamba. The beneficiaries are Sen Patrick Aga and Hon Idris Yahuza Yakubu.
  Senate 2003-2007 rotated to Akwanga while House of Reps to Nasarawa Eggon. The beneficiaries are Sen John Danboyi and Hon Patricia Akwashiki.
  Senate 2007-2011 rotated to Nasarawa Eggon; House of Reps to Wamba and the beneficiaries are Sen Patricia Akwashiki and Hon Isa  Ambaka.
  Senate 2011-2015 went to Sen Solomon Ewuga of Nasarawa Eggon. While the electorates infact voted Hon Idris Yahuza of Wamba to House of Reps, the Courts gave it to Hon David Davematics Ombugadu of Nasarawa Eggon who never campaigned.
   Senate 2015-2019 rotated to Akwanga and Reps to Nasarawa Eggon with the holders as Sen Philip Gyunka and Hon David Ombugadu.

2019 PROJECTED VOTING PATTERN
Nasarawa Eggon votes will not be less than 54% while Wamba and Akwanga 46% combined together in the forthcoming February 16, 2019 National Assembly elections. Nasarawa Eggon will split its votes among the 5 candidates of its Area. Akwanga will give bloc votes to its only candidate Michael Abdul, PDP. Akwanga is already into sound alliance with Wamba to vote its son so that, in turn, Akwanga will vote Wamba's Abdulkarim of the PDP.
   Some wards in Nasarawa Eggon will fall to PDP for obvious reasons. Alushi Ginda Ward is where Sen Solomon Ewuga hails from. Ikka Wangibi ward is where the PDP Governorship candidate David Ombugadu comes from. National zonal chairman PDP Jacob Ali hails from  Ende ward. These are bloc votes for the PDP. And the PDP will pull not less than 15% votes in the remaining 11 wards. So, by simple arithmetic, PDP will have 50% votes  flexed across not less than 6 wards. Nasarawa Eggon LGA has 14 electoral wards.
   Accordingly, John Michael Abdul is likely to win the senatorial election while Abdulkarim Ombamas is likely to win the House of Representatives in Akwanga zone (Nasarawa North).
  As for the Governorship election, there is the likelihood that Akwanga LGA will fall to APC and Wamba LGA also to APC. Nasarawa Eggon LGA will have its votes split to PDP, APGA and APC. The projection in Lafia zone (Nasarawa South), combined together, APC will lead the vote count.
 
SUMMARY
The 2019 General elections will likely hit Nasarawa Eggon LGA with heavy blows.
  The Senate seat is tilting towards Akwanga LGA and to John Michael Abdul of the PDP. The seat of the House of Representatives is favouring Wamba  LGA with Abdulkarim Ombamas as beneficiary. The Governorship is likely to be won by Engr AA Sule, APC, who hails from Akwanga LGA.
=====End of Part 8======